Mortgage Rates: Where We Stand Today

Rates Dipped Below 6% — Then Snapped Back

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 5.99% on February 23, 2026 — the first time rates had started with a "5" since September 2022. That milestone broke an emotional barrier for many buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines. Then, on March 2, the average rate jumped 13 basis points to 6.12% in a single day as the U.S.-Iran conflict drove oil prices higher and pushed Treasury yields back above 4%.

Today's Mortgage Rates at a Glance

Despite today's uptick, rates remain dramatically lower than the 7%–8% range that defined 2023 and 2024. Borrowers who purchased during that period have a meaningful refinance opportunity, and today's purchase rates still represent a significant improvement over recent years.

Why the Iran Conflict Is Pushing Rates Higher

U.S.-Israeli military strikes against Iran have driven oil prices sharply higher. A significant rise in energy prices typically adds 0.1–0.3 percentage points to headline inflation almost immediately. With the Fed already watching inflation exceed its 2% target for five consecutive years, this oil shock is particularly problematic.

Iran conflict → Oil surge → Inflation fears → Higher interest rates

Markets fear that sustained energy price increases will keep inflation elevated well above the Fed's target. The chain reaction is direct: geopolitical instability in the Persian Gulf disrupts oil supply expectations, which feeds into consumer prices and, ultimately, into the rates that lenders charge on mortgages.

The "Tug-of-War" — Why Rates Are Rising

In a typical geopolitical crisis, investors flee to U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields and mortgage rates down. This time, the opposite is happening. The oil/inflation channel is overpowering the safe-haven effect, pushing both Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher. There are, however, forces on both sides.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Are Fading

The Federal Reserve cut rates three times in the final four months of 2025, totaling 1.75% in reductions. Those cuts helped bring mortgage rates down significantly from their 2023–2024 peaks. However, the next FOMC meeting on March 17–18, 2026 is widely expected to hold rates steady, and the odds of a cut at that meeting are low.

The earliest realistic target for the next cut is now June 2026 — and even that is uncertain. The Iran conflict has reignited inflation concerns that could push that timeline further out.

"Any chance of a Fed interest-rate cut in 2026 is evaporating before our very eyes."

— MarketWatch, March 2026

Opportunities Still Exist — Despite the Volatility

Today's rates, while higher than last week, are still 1–2 percentage points below what buyers faced in 2023 and 2024. For anyone who purchased at 7%–8%, the refinance math is compelling. For buyers who have been waiting, the window that opened when rates crossed below 6% may not stay open long.

The spring housing market is underway. Inventory is picking up, and competition among buyers is increasing. Waiting for rates to fall further carries real risk — especially with geopolitical uncertainty now in the picture. The best strategy is to get pre-approved, understand your numbers, and be ready to act when the right home comes along.