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Brad Hall — Market Updates

What's Moving Rates

Plain-English updates on rates, the Fed, and what it actually means for buyers and sellers in your market.

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Rate AlertApril 16, 2026

Ceasefire Is Holding — And Freddie Mac Just Confirmed a 4-Week Low

The Iran ceasefire brokered in Islamabad is now in its second week, oil has pulled back, and bond yields have eased. Freddie Mac's weekly survey released today shows the 30-year fixed at 6.30% — a 4-week low and down 32 basis points from the March 26th peak of 6.62%. The MND daily index sits at 6.32%. Here's what changed, what's still fragile, and what it means for your buyers right now.

6.32%
30-Yr Fixed (MND)
▼ -7 bps
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Rate AlertApril 10, 2026

Inflation Hit a 2-Year High Today. This Weekend's Talks Could Move Rates More Than Any Data.

March CPI came in at 3.3% — the hottest reading in two years — driven by a 10.9% surge in energy costs from the Iran war. Rates barely flinched, closing the week at 6.39%. The reason: every eye in the bond market is fixed on Islamabad, where U.S. and Iranian delegations are meeting Saturday. What happens this weekend will matter more than any data point next week.

6.39%
30-Yr Fixed (MND)
▲ +1 bp
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Rate AlertApril 8, 2026

The Ceasefire That Wasn't: Rates Whipsawed 28 Basis Points in 18 Hours

Tuesday night's ceasefire euphoria triggered a $1.5 trillion stock rally and sent bond yields plunging. By Wednesday afternoon, Iran declared three clauses already violated, Israel launched its largest single strike wave of the war, and the bond market gave back almost every gain. Rates touched 6.38% at dawn — then lenders repriced higher by noon.

6.40%
30-Yr Fixed (MND)
▼ -4 bps
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Rate AlertApril 2, 2026

Trump's Speech Killed the Ceasefire Rally — And Freddie Mac Just Confirmed 5 Straight Weeks of Rate Increases

Markets had been building toward a ceasefire trade all week. Then Trump spoke. Oil jumped 4%+ to $106, stocks fell, and any hope of a near-term rate drop evaporated. Freddie Mac confirmed the damage: 6.46% this week — the 5th straight weekly increase and the highest since September 2025.

6.46%
Freddie Mac Weekly
▲ +8 bps
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Rate AlertMarch 26, 2026

Ceasefire Hope Crushed: Rates Hit 6.62% as Iran War Drags On

Yesterday's brief bond rally on ceasefire talk was completely reversed today. MBS closed down -0.59, the 10-year hit 4.41%, and the MND rate index jumped to 6.62% — the highest since September 2025. Freddie Mac confirmed the damage: +16 bps in one week.

6.62%
30-Yr Fixed
▲ +14 bps
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Rate AlertMarch 20, 2026

Rates Hit a 6-Month High: The Week That Erased February's Progress

In three weeks, rates went from 5.99% to 6.53% — the highest since last fall. The bond market closed down 31/32 today. The 10-year Treasury hit its highest yield since July. Here's the full picture.

6.53%
30-Yr Fixed
▲ +10 bps
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Rate AlertMarch 18, 2026

Fed Day Triple Hit: PPI, Oil, and Powell All Pushed Rates Higher

Rates got hit three times today. Hot PPI data. An oil price spike. Then Powell said rate cuts are on hold — possibly until 2027. MBS closed down nearly half a point. Here's what it means.

6.36%
30-Yr Fixed
▲ +7 bps
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Rate AlertMarch 16, 2026

Rates Pull Back From 7-Month Highs — Here's What Changed Today

Oil dropped 4%+ as tankers moved through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Bonds rallied. Rates fell from Friday's 6.41% high back to 6.36%. It's a real improvement — but the conflict is far from over.

6.36%
30-Yr Fixed
▼ -5 bps
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Rate AlertMarch 12, 2026

Day Two of the Rout: MBS Closed Down -14/32 and Rates Hit a 5-Week High

Tanker attacks in the Gulf. Brent crude near $100. The Dow down 600 points. MBS closed at the lows again — down -14/32. Freddie Mac's weekly survey just confirmed 6.11%. Here's what happened and what you need to do right now.

6.29%
30-Yr Fixed
▲ +16 bps
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Rate AlertMarch 11, 2026

End of Day: MBS Closed at the Lows — Here's What Happened

Bonds got crushed today. Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz, a weak Treasury auction piled on, and MBS closed down -12/32. Rates are moving higher. If you're floating, read this now.

6.20%
30-Yr Fixed
▲ +11 bps
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Rate AlertMarch 11, 2026

Rates at 6.08% on CPI Day — Here's What the Data Actually Says

Today's inflation report came in tame, but rates are still creeping up. Oil near $100, the Fed meeting in 6 days, and a spring market under pressure — here's the full picture.

6.08%
30-Yr Fixed
▲ +10 bps
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Rate AlertMarch 5, 2026

Rates Are Back at 6.13% — Here's the Real Story

After briefly touching 5.99%, the 30-year fixed has climbed back to 6.13%. Here's what's driving it — and why buyers still have more power than they did a year ago.

6.13%
30-Yr Fixed
▲ +14 bps
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Market UpdateMarch 2, 2026

Rates Snap Back Above 6% as Iran Conflict Rattles Markets

Rates just crossed below 6% for the first time since 2022 — then snapped right back. Here's what happened and what it means for buyers right now.

6.12%
30-Yr Fixed
▲ +13 bps
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Rate AlertFebruary 23, 2026

30-Year Fixed Dips Below 6% — First Time Since September 2022

Rates just hit 5.99% — the first time below 6% in over three years. If you've been waiting to buy or refinance, this is worth paying attention to.

5.99%
30-Yr Fixed
▼ −0.08%
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Market OutlookFebruary 10, 2026

February 2026 Mortgage Outlook: Gradual Improvement Ahead

Rates are heading in the right direction. Here's what's driving them and what to expect over the next 60–90 days.

6.18%
30-Yr Fixed
▼ −0.12%
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