Rates at 6.08% on CPI Day — Here's What the Data Actually Says
Today's inflation report came in tame, but rates are still creeping up. Oil near $100, the Fed meeting in 6 days, and a spring market under pressure — here's the full picture.
The 30-year fixed is sitting at 6.08% this morning according to Mortgage News Daily — up from a brief low of 5.98% just two weeks ago. Freddie Mac's weekly survey (released March 5) showed 6.00%, but that's a lagging read. The real-time number is higher, and the direction has been upward since the Iran conflict began. (Sources: Mortgage News Daily, Freddie Mac PMMS, March 11, 2026)
Today is CPI day — and the February inflation report just landed. The headline number came in at 2.4% year-over-year, matching January and in line with expectations. The tame reading is a mild positive for rates, but don't expect a big move. The bond market has bigger concerns right now: oil is hovering near $100 a barrel, the Iran conflict is in its 10th day with no clear resolution, and the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed from a low of 3.96% in late February to 4.18% today. Mortgage rates follow that yield closely. (Sources: U.S. News, Bankrate, Mortgage News Daily)
The Fed meets March 17-18 — just six days away. No cut is expected. The Mortgage Bankers Association's chief economist put it plainly: 'Although this month's job numbers were weaker than expected, we do not expect the FOMC to cut rates any time soon given the heightened inflation risk.' The jobs report for February showed only 92,000 payrolls added — a soft number — but the oil shock is keeping the Fed on hold. The market is now pricing in fewer cuts for all of 2026. (Sources: Bankrate, MBA)
Here's the perspective that matters: rates are up from their recent low, but they're still well below where they were a year ago (6.63% in March 2025). Purchase applications are running 10% ahead of last year's pace, and refinance activity is at its strongest since 2022. The spring market was shaping up to be the best in years before the conflict hit — and that underlying demand hasn't gone away. If the home is right and the payment works, the right move is to know your exact numbers. I'll build your complete plan — side-by-side options, a video walkthrough, and your Freedom Point. No obligation.
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