February 2026 Mortgage Outlook: Gradual Improvement Ahead
Rates are heading in the right direction. Here's what's driving them and what to expect over the next 60–90 days.
February opened with 30-year fixed rates in the 6.1%–6.3% range — a real improvement from the 7%–8% peaks of 2023 and 2024. The Fed's three cuts in late 2025 (1.75% total) are finally showing up in the market.
The big question: does inflation keep cooling toward the Fed's 2% target? January CPI came in a bit hot, which pushed back hopes for a spring cut. (Source: HousingWire)
Inventory is slowly improving — especially in markets like Northern Virginia and parts of Northern California. That should ease some of the pressure buyers have been dealing with. Spring is shaping up to be active. (Source: HousingWire)
My take: don't try to time this perfectly. If the home is right and the payment works, today's rates are a meaningful improvement over 18 months ago. We can always refinance if rates drop further — but you can't go back and buy the house you missed.
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