End of Day: MBS Closed at the Lows — Here's What Happened
Bonds got crushed today. Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz, a weak Treasury auction piled on, and MBS closed down -12/32. Rates are moving higher. If you're floating, read this now.
This morning's CPI report was actually good news — February inflation came in at 2.4% year-over-year, exactly in line with expectations. Under normal circumstances, that would have been enough to stabilize rates. Today was not normal circumstances. Within minutes of the CPI release, breaking news hit: Iran has been mining the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships passing through. The bond market completely ignored the inflation data and sold off hard. (Sources: r/MortgageRates MBS Monitor, Bankrate, March 11, 2026)
The selloff accelerated all day. By 12:35 PM, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) had triggered an Unfavorable Alert — down -8/32 from the morning open, with lenders actively pulling rate sheets and repricing for the worse. Then came the afternoon's final blow: a weak 10-year Treasury auction. Investor demand was below average, which is a direct signal that the market wants higher yields to hold long-term U.S. debt amid this oil panic. MBS closed the day down -12/32 at a price of 99-10 — at the lows. The Dow finished down 290 points. (Source: ShanetheMortgageMan, r/MortgageRates)
The rate impact was real. The MBA's weekly survey this morning showed 6.19% — up from 6.09% the prior week. WSJ's daily index closed at 6.20%. Those numbers reflect this morning's pricing; the afternoon reprices pushed effective rates even higher for borrowers who hadn't locked yet. The 10-year Treasury yield, which drives mortgage rates, climbed further toward 4.25% by the close — up from a low of 3.96% just two weeks ago. (Sources: Yahoo Finance, WSJ, Mortgage News Daily)
Tomorrow brings a 30-year Bond auction. If demand is weak again — which is possible given the geopolitical backdrop — we could see a repeat of today's afternoon selloff. The bottom line is straightforward: the market is being driven by fear, not fundamentals. If you have a purchase or refinance closing in the next 15 to 30 days and you're still floating, the risk of waiting is no longer worth it. Reach out and I'll walk you through your options — locking now versus floating, side-by-side, so you can make the call with full information.
Send this directly to a buyer or realtor — they'll see the full update on your branded page.
The Brad Hall Team is here to help you navigate today's market. Schedule a free call or start your pre-approval — no obligation.